Model guidance and recent satellite trends indicate a largely
disorganized tropical disturbance, now known as JTWC’s Invest 96W,
developing within the trades over or near Palau and Yap in the next
few days. Currently, the system is centered near 7N142E, and is
expected to continue moving westward along with the trades. The
passage of 96W will produce intense showers and thunderstorms
spanning much of the westernmost extent of Micronesia, especially
over Palau. Conditions will begin to deteriorate quickly, as heavy
showers are expected over Yap earlier in the evening, and at Palau
by midnight tonight. These showers are expected to bring gusty winds
that may reach near gale-force in Yap’s vicinity.
As 96W moves away toward the Philippines, showers are expected to
diminish quickly at Yap, but Palau may continue to see significant
showers through potentially the middle of the week. As such, there
is potential for flooding impacts during this rain event, especially
at Palau by Tuesday or Wednesday. While gusty winds are expected,
high uncertainty remains regarding sustained wind strengths due to
the nature of the feature; certainty will increase over the next few
days as the disturbance becomes more consolidated.