Model guidance and recent satellite trends indicate a largely
disorganized trade-wind disturbance to develop within the trades
over or near Palau and Yap in the next few days. This is expected to
produce intense showers and thunderstorms spanning much of the
westernmost extent of Micronesia. Conditions will begin to
deteriorate quickly, as heavy showers are expected over Yap by
Saturday, and at Palau by Saturday night. These showers are expected
to bring gusty winds that may reach near gale- force in the vicinity.
As the disturbance moves toward the Philippines, showers are expected
to diminish quickly at Yap, but Palau may continue to see on-and-off
showers through at least Tuesday. As such, there is potential for
flooding impacts during this rain event, especially at Palau. While
gusty winds are expected, high uncertainty remains regarding
sustained wind strengths due to the nature of the feature; certainty
will increase over the next few days as the disturbance becomes more
apparent on satellite imagery.